A new Harris Interactive poll is showing that, in the US, installed Blu-Ray players STILL trail installed HD-DVD players.  With the “dead” HD-DVD format showing an installed base of 11% to Blu-Ray’s 7%, you have to wonder, what is going on here?

HD-DVD players (when they were still around) were much cheaper than Sony’s more expensive Blu-Ray format, and with the cruddy economy, price conscious consumers may not be willing to replace their hardware.  Especially with Blu-Ray prices for both players and discs staying at relatively high levels.

I suspect a few things may be driving these numbers.  As indicated before, the cost on Blu-Ray is just too high, considering a nice up-converted DVD is usually “good enough”.

Second, I suspect a healthy chunk of folks have decided to wait an see if Blu-Ray really sticks, or if it is a digital download format that eventually wins out.  After HD-DVD cratered, Microsoft basically said they believe the future is in downloads, not discs.  Apple appears to have the same philosophy with iTunes and Apple TV.

Lastly, never underestimate human capacity for error.  I suspect that between the average consumer, and the average survey giver, a good chunk of these 11% “HD-DVD owners” really don’t have one.  Something along the lines of this:

Surveyor: “Do you own an HD-DVD player?”

Respondent: “I have a DVD player connected to my HDTV, yes.  Is that what you are asking?”

Surveyor: “I can only repeat the question.  Do you own an HD-DVD player?”

Respondent: “Uhhh… O.K.  Uh… yes?

Regardless of the reasons, it looks like Blu-Ray adoption is not happening at the rate originally anticipated when HD-DVD died.  Sony’s format looked to have a clear path to the promised land, but as of yet, still has not been able to really seal the deal.  With all the HD download options coming from Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, Hulu, and yes even Sony, Blu-Ray may still end up as dead as HD-DVD.

By Sci-Bot-9000